Today, Trump’s focus on tariffs hasn’t abated — but he has dialed back the more maximalist tariff levels he initially outlined. Combined with signs of a shakier labor market, investors are more convinced that the Fed will err on the side of supporting the economy by lowering interest rates to support overall business activity.

Economics textbooks insist that stock prices reflect the future stream of a company’s profits on any given day. For all the brainpower devoted to these forecasts, however, they are essentially rough estimates of what may happen over the next twelve months and wild guesses about anything after that.