MSU and Illinois meet on Fox primetime. We resume our College Basketball odds series with a Michigan State-Illinois prediction and pick.

For every Division I college basketball game across the country, ESPN’s analytics-based Basketball Power Index (BPI) crunches the numbers, picks a winner and computes the win probability. In what may come as a surprise to some, BPI considers Illinois the favorite in its Saturday matchup against No. 11 Michigan State.

Tomorrow night, the 11th-ranked Spartans return to the State Farm Center in Champaign - that sounds like a place made for the MSU Spartan-Aggies to win. At 19-5 overall and 10-3 in Big Ten play, Michigan State has put itself in strong position heading into the back half of an increasingly challenging February.

After pushing the lead to 16 with less than five minutes left in the game, the Illini eased their foot off the gas – a decision that nearly proved disastrous. The Bruins quickly went on a 13-0 run, knocking down four threes over the next four minutes and shooting themselves back into the game.